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Topic 5F - ML For More Accurate Weather Forecasts

Featured Images and Example Data
Comparison between Met Norway in situ observations and Netatmo observations for precipitation during an extreme rain event. Netatmos observations show a good agreement with MetNorway and cover a far greater area
Comparison during an extreme rain event
Comparison between Met Norway in situ observations and Netatmo observations for precipitation during an extreme rain event. Netatmos observations show a good agreement with MetNorway and cover a far greater area

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Met Norway
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Oslo 4 August 2019 (right) 10-min snapshots of Netatmo rainfall (left) same as right but also with Netatmo MSLP anomalies (shaded) and radar precip intensity (contours)
High-frequency updates,predictions and observations - Met Norway
Oslo 4 August 2019 (right) 10-min snapshots of Netatmo rainfall (left) same as right but also with Netatmo MSLP anomalies (shaded) and radar precip intensity (contours)

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Met Norway/Roel Stappers/Thomas Nipen
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High-resolution weather phenomena
High-resolution weather phenomena
High-resolution weather phenomena

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Met Norway
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This image shows the raw NWP model image at 2.5km resolution (left), the statistical downscaling process (middle), bias correction - adding observations(right)
Combining NWP with observations
This image shows the raw NWP model image at 2.5km resolution (left), the statistical downscaling process (middle), bias correction - adding observations(right)

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Met Norway
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These images show the downscaling process along a coastline. The raw model output is on the right, and the image on the left shows coastal gradient correction. Temperatures on the coast can be up to 10 degrees wrong - so land/ocean fraction can be used when interpolating to finer resolution
Downscaling along coastlines
These images show the downscaling process along a coastline. The raw model output is on the right, and the image on the left shows coastal gradient correction. Temperatures on the coast can be up to 10 degrees wrong - so land/ocean fraction can be used when interpolating to finer resolution

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Met Norway
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Example of direct weather prediction for 5 days lead time. The input to the neural network are fields on a latitude-longitude grid. The fields can be several levels of the same variable and/or different variables. The goal is to predict the same fields some time ahead. (b) Iterative forecasts are created from data-driven models trained on a shorter lead time, for example, 6 hr, which are then iteratively called up to the required forecast lead time.
Schematic of data-driven weather forecasting
Example of direct weather prediction for 5 days lead time. The input to the neural network are fields on a latitude-longitude grid. The fields can be several levels of the same variable and/or different variables. The goal is to predict the same fields some time ahead. (b) Iterative forecasts are created from data-driven models trained on a shorter lead time, for example, 6 hr, which are then iteratively called up to the required forecast lead time.

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Stephan Rasp, Peter Dueben et al., 2020
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This is an Extreme forecast index (EFI) of weekly precipitation in Europe
Extended range Extreme forecast index
This is an Extreme forecast index (EFI) of weekly precipitation in Europe

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ECMWF
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This is an ECMWF Mean sea level pressure: Probability distribution forecast
Mean sea level pressure: Probability distribution
This is an ECMWF Mean sea level pressure: Probability distribution forecast

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ECMWF
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This charts show 500 hPa geopotential height (contours) and temperature at 850 hPa (shading) from the ECMWF HRES model.
Geopotential and temperature forecast
This charts show 500 hPa geopotential height (contours) and temperature at 850 hPa (shading) from the ECMWF HRES model.

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ECMWF
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This is an example of a 2m temperature (colour shading) and 30m winds (black arrows) forecast
2m Temperature and 30m winds
This is an example of a 2m temperature (colour shading) and 30m winds (black arrows) forecast

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ECMWF
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Featured Video and Animations
Animation of Sentinel-1 in orbit
Sentinel-1
Animation of Sentinel-1 in orbit

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ESA/ATG medialab
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This animation shows the orbits of NASA's fleet of Earth observing spacecraft that are considered operational as of December 2019
NASA's Earth orbiting fleet
This animation shows the orbits of NASA's fleet of Earth observing spacecraft that are considered operational as of December 2019

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NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
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Animation of Sentinel-1 in orbit
Sentinel-1 Flybyes
Animation of Sentinel-1 in orbit

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ESA
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